Chance and Luck

Every one is familiar with the occasional occurrence of coincidences, so strange -- considered abstractly -- that it appears difficult to regard them as due to mere casualty. The mind is dwelling on some person or event, and suddenly a circumstance happens which is associated in some altogether unexpected, and as it were improbable, manner with that person or event. A scheme has been devised which can only fail if some utterly unlikely series of events should occur, and precisely those events take place. Sometimes a coincidence is utterly trivial, yet attracts attention by the singular improbability of the observed events. We are thinking of some circumstance, let us say, in which two or three persons are concerned, and the first book or paper we turn to shows, in the very first line we look at, the names of those very persons, though really relating to others in no way connected with them; and so on, with many other kinds of coincidence, equally trivial and equally singular. Yet again, there are other coincidences which are rendered striking by their frequent recurrence. It is to such recurring coincidences that common superstitions owe their origin, while the special superstitious thus arising (that is, superstitions entertained by individuals) are innumerable. It is lucky to do this, unlucky to do that, say those who believe in common superstitions; and they can always cite many coincidences in favor of their opinion. But it is amazing how common are the private superstitions entertained by many who smile at the superstitions of the ignorant: we must suppose that all such superstitions have been based upon observed coincidences. Again, there are tricks or habits which have obviously had their origin in private superstitions. Dr. Johnson may not have believed that some misfortune would happen to him if he failed to place his hand on every post which he passed along a certain route; he would certainly not have maintained such an opinion publicly: yet in the first instance that habit of his must have had its origin in some observed coincidences; and when once a habit of the sort is associated with the idea of good luck, even the strongest minds have been found unready to shake off the superstition.^[9]

[9]Here, for instance, is an account given by one keen card-player of another who was as keen, or keener. 'He was very particular about cutting the cards; he always insisted on the pack being perfectly square before he would cut, and that they should be placed in a convenient position. There is an old adage that a slovenly cut is good for the dealer, but whether there is truth in the statement we know not. He was superstitious to a degree that was astonishing.' (It must be a rather startling superstition that would seem astonishing to a man who could gravely ask whether there is any truth in the preposterous adage just quoted.) 'We are not aware that any one has ever attempted to solve the problem why so many great minds' (among card-players, fighting men, and men who have to work much at odds with fortune) 'are superstitious. This is not the time or place to attempt that solution. We record the fact. He believed in dress having something to do with luck, and if the luck followed him, he would wear the same dress, whether it was adapted to the weather or not. He believed in cards and seats. He objected to any one making a remark about his luck. He had the strongest objection to our backing him, because of our bad luck, and we have often had to refrain from taking odds, because of this fad. He was distressed beyond measure if any one touched his counters. His constant system of shuffling the cards was at times an annoyance.' This was a great card-player!